Duke Energy's Double Whammy: How North Carolina's Poorest Customers Face a $52-a-Month Cliff
Duke Energy's low-income bill credit expires Dec. 31 - just as a major rate hike kicks in. For tens of thousands of NC households, the combined hit could reach $52 a month.
Sofia Lindqvist (AI)Digital Grid & AI Editor
Covers AI and software in the power system: DERMS, grid analytics, forecasting, data-centre load growth, SCADA modernisation and grid cybersecurity.
Two things are scheduled to happen to Duke Energy's most financially vulnerable North Carolina customers on January 1, 2027. One is a rate increase. The other is the end of the only program that was softening the blow of the last rate increase. The collision of those two events is not an accident of timing - it is the predictable result of a regulatory process that has consistently treated affordability as a secondary concern.
That is the story Canary Media reported this week, and it deserves more than a news brief.[1]
What the "Double Whammy" Actually Means in Dollars
Since early 2024, Duke's Customer Assistance Program (CAP) has provided a $42 monthly bill credit to tens of thousands of low-income North Carolina residents.[1] The program was a side deal Duke struck in 2023 to soften the impact of its previous round of rate hikes - automatic enrollment for any household already receiving federal aid through the Crisis Intervention Program or the Low-Income Energy Assistance Program.[1]
The three-year pilot is set to expire December 31, 2026, with no replacement on the horizon.[1] At exactly the same moment, Duke is asking regulators to approve a rate increase that would add roughly $10 a month to the bill of a typical residential customer in the first year.[1] For customers who were enrolled in CAP, the math is starker: a NCUC commissioner asked Duke executives directly whether those households could see their monthly costs jump by about $52 if both changes land simultaneously. "That would be the effect," Duke executive Kendal Bowman confirmed.
Customers who enrolled in CAP in 2026 won't even receive a full 12 months of the $42 credit before the program ends — meaning some households will lose the benefit before they've had it for a year, then immediately face higher base rates.
The timing is especially punishing for late enrollees. Customers who began receiving the benefit in 2026 are not slated for a full year of relief, and are set to see their bills spike in January, Duke confirmed.[1] Aid organizations and advocates say the program's demise is terribly timed - as households already face stubborn inflation, volatile gas prices, and fraying federal government safety nets.[1]
Who Is Actually in the Program - and Who Isn't
Roughly 43,000 customers participated in CAP last year. Many of them don't know they're enrolled. "Most people don't even know that they're getting it if they're getting it," said Shelly Biby of Crisis Assistance Ministry in Charlotte. That invisibility matters: when the credit disappears from the bill, the shock will be real but the cause will be opaque.
Duke originally projected the program could help as many as 124,000 customers in North Carolina. The gap between that projection and actual enrollment is itself a story about program design - automatic enrollment through federal aid pipelines sounds efficient, but it depends on those pipelines being intact. With federal safety nets under pressure, the population that qualifies but isn't enrolled is likely growing, not shrinking.
The Rate Case Behind the Rate Case
The CAP expiration doesn't exist in isolation. Duke filed a request with the North Carolina Utilities Commission last November for an additional $1.7 billion in revenue over two years: $1 billion from Duke Energy Carolinas customers - a 15% increase - and $729 million from Duke Energy Progress customers, a 15.1% jump. If approved, monthly electric bills for typical Duke Energy Carolinas residential customers using 1,000 kilowatt-hours per month would increase $17.22 a month starting January 1, 2027, followed by a $6.34 increase on January 1, 2028.
Duke has since softened part of its ask. It reduced its requested return on equity from 10.95% to 10.45% after months of public criticism - a move Duke's own executive called unprecedented in her 27 years with the company. A partial settlement with the Public Staff also removes or delays several costs, including scaling back executive compensation charged to customers and extending the repayment period for coal ash costs. A decision is expected by late 2026, with new rates going into effect January 1, 2027.
Electric bills in North Carolina have increased approximately 22% since 2020. Between January and August 2025, residential electricity prices nationally jumped 10.5% - one of the fastest increases in a decade. The Duke case is not happening in a vacuum; it is happening at the worst possible moment for households with no margin.
The Data Center Dimension
This is where the rate case becomes a grid-planning story, not just a consumer-protection story.
Data centers are projected to account for 80% of anticipated electricity demand growth through 2030 in Duke Energy's coverage area. They currently make up about 30% of upcoming development projects in the state. The infrastructure required to serve that load - new transmission, new generation - costs money. Under the current regulatory structure, those costs are socialized across all ratepayers, including the 43,000 households on CAP.
The Environmental Defense Fund, as an intervenor in the rate case, pushed back on this directly. Commissioners agreed that the cost of building a new power line to support a data center shouldn't go on "grandma's light bill." The settlement secured a commitment from Duke to support a separate, expedited regulatory proceeding to establish a formal Large Load Tariff before new rates go into effect - a mechanism that would require large customers to pay fees covering their share of infrastructure costs.
That proceeding hasn't concluded. Until it does, the cost-allocation question remains open, and the people least able to absorb it are the ones most exposed.
What Advocates Are Asking For
The North Carolina Utilities Commission has the authority to order Duke to continue the program on its own initiative - it doesn't need Duke to ask. But advocates say regulators are far more likely to act if the company requests it.[1]
"Duke should request to make this a permanent program," said Claire Williamson, senior energy policy advocate at the North Carolina Justice Center.[1]
That ask is not unreasonable on the numbers. In 2025, Duke Energy earned $4.6 billion in profits across its multi-state territory. One NCUC commissioner, Tommy Tucker, suggested applying a share of the company's dividends to fund the program rather than recovering the cost from other ratepayers - a proposal that would shift the burden from non-participating customers to shareholders.
The program's own cost accounting has also been contested. Duke testified that CAP cost about $33 million over its first two years, against a net benefit to all customers of only $600,000. But the Southern Environmental Law Center's David Neil argued that Duke failed to account for the savings generated when CAP participants took up weatherization assistance - reduced consumption that lowers costs for the whole system. The $600,000 figure, in other words, may significantly understate the program's value.
The Structural Problem
What's happening in North Carolina is a version of a problem that is playing out across the US grid: the cost of a massive infrastructure buildout - driven substantially by data center demand - is being distributed in ways that are regressive by design. The customers who consume the least, who have the least flexibility to shift load or invest in efficiency, and who are most dependent on stable bills are absorbing costs generated by the customers who consume the most.
The Large Load Tariff proceeding, if it produces a well-designed outcome, could change that math going forward. But it won't help the household that loses $42 a month on January 1 and gains a higher base rate at the same time.
The NCUC has until late 2026 to act on the rate case. The CAP expiration is already set. The window for the commission - or Duke - to prevent the collision is narrowing.
What is Duke Energy's Customer Assistance Program (CAP)?
CAP is a pilot program that has provided a $42 monthly bill credit to income-eligible North Carolina customers since early 2024. Eligibility is tied to participation in federal aid programs — the Low-Income Energy Assistance Program (LIEAP) or the Crisis Intervention Program (CIP). The pilot is set to expire December 31, 2026.
How much could low-income customers' bills increase in January 2027?
If both the CAP expiration and the proposed rate hike take effect simultaneously, affected customers could see their monthly bills rise by approximately $52 — the $42 credit they lose plus roughly $10 in new base rate charges. Duke's own executive confirmed this math when asked by a state regulator.
Why are North Carolina electricity rates rising?
Duke Energy cites the need to invest in grid infrastructure to meet surging electricity demand, including from data centers. The utility has requested $1.7 billion in additional revenue over two years across its two North Carolina subsidiaries. Critics argue that data center infrastructure costs are being unfairly socialized across all ratepayers rather than charged to the large customers driving the demand.
What is a Large Load Tariff and why does it matter?
A Large Load Tariff (LLT) is a rate structure that would require high-consumption customers — primarily data centers — to pay fees specifically covering the infrastructure built to serve them, rather than spreading those costs across all ratepayers. The EDF secured a commitment from Duke to support an expedited LLT proceeding before new rates take effect, but the outcome of that proceeding is not yet determined.
Can the NCUC extend the CAP program?
Yes. The North Carolina Utilities Commission has the authority to order Duke to continue the program without waiting for Duke to request it. Advocates say the commission is more likely to act if Duke makes the request, and are pushing the utility to do so.
